When Will the Big Earthquake Hit?

I was born and raised in Japan. Like most Japanese, I have experienced many earthquakes. As a child, I still remember the sound of the ground rumbling and the steel frames of buildings making eerie noises.

On August 8, 2024, a massive earthquake with a magnitude of 7.1 struck Kyushu Island, Japan. After significant earthquakes like this, there's often concern about the possibility of another major quake following. People started worrying, particularly about the potential for the dreaded Nankai Trough earthquake.

The Nankai Trough is an area with a history of massive earthquakes, and it's in a state where a major quake could happen at any time. Some even believe that a large earthquake in the Nankai Trough could trigger an eruption of Mt. Fuji.

The next day, on August 9, 2024, another earthquake occurred in Kanagawa Prefecture, near Tokyo, where I used to live. According to the news, the major train lines stopped, and there was chaos as people could not return home.

There are many rumours about earthquake predictions. The oldest one involves catfish being able to sense impending earthquakes. It's not just catfish; some say snakes can detect them, too. Long ago, my neighbours and I saw a few rare snakes on the road, and my neighbours started to worry. The next day, there was a big earthquake. However, there's no scientific evidence to back these claims.

Now, people in Japan are worried about earthquakes. Some rumours have been spreading widely online, with predictions of a possible quake on August 14 or 16. Most people know these predictions aren't scientific, but they can't help feeling anxious. Experts in today's science cannot predict when earthquakes will occur. It might be tomorrow or ten years later. What we know is that it's undoubtedly coming.

I hope that one day scientists will discover a reliable way to predict earthquakes, but even that could bring its challenges. Predictions can lead to social problems, which reminds me of the Japanese drama "JAPAN SINKS: People of Hope."

"JAPAN SINKS: People of Hope."
https://www.netflix.com/au/title/81477445

Japan is prone to natural disasters, which may be beyond human control. But we can only hope that measures will continue to be developed to minimise the damage as much as possible.

The 3D Printer

I finally bought what I had wanted: a 3D printer. Initially, I assumed 3D printers would be challenging to use. However, after watching people on the internet using them, I began to feel it might be easy. Then, something nudged me: a second-anniversary sale at Bambu Lab. By the time I noticed, the sale was about to end in a week.

"All right! Now's the time to buy it!"

I bought a Bambu Lab P1S 3D Printer, four filaments, and a 0.2mm nozzle. 

I immediately began creating shapes using 3D graphic software. It was exciting, but unfortunately, the COVID virus disrupted me. Suddenly, my motivation dropped, and I was unable to work due to illness. It took about ten days to recover. It was an awful experience. While I had a fever and was too sluggish to move, I could only stare at the ceiling and envision new designs for the 3D printer.

I recalled an idea I'd long imagined—it was the perfect time to bring it to life. The 3D printer is more accessible than a CNC router for realizing my ideas. Unlike the noisy CNC router, which restricts night use, the 3D printer offers convenience at any time. How convenient!

The 3D printer also proved handy for creating new jigs. My husband asked me to make some jigs for the CNC router. Making them from timber would have taken much longer, whereas the 3D printer produced them quickly. We should have purchased a 3D printer sooner indeed.

I plan to showcase my 3D-printed creations here someday.

My Challenge to Make a Marble Run Machine - Simplified Connecting Coil and A Windmill

I've made some improvements on my marble run. As I wrote in the previous post, there was an issue with dropping balls when one of the parts, Seven Arrows, received two balls simultaneously.

I carefully watched the Seven Arrows' movement and found that the balls' dropping position needed to be revised. The balls dropped and touched behind the arrow, so they rolled outside.

 

I realized there would only be a complete correction with remaking the board supporting the Seven Arrows. 

Since I still had the board's data, I widened the distance by 8mm (0.31496 inch) between the left-hand side and right-hand side arrows. I didn't have a specific reason for my widened 8mm. It was just a rough hunch, but it worked well.

The next task was to reduce the speed of the balls that rolled on a rail after they passed through the Pachinko Disk. Their speed was too fast, and some balls jumped out of the rail. I put an extra bracket in the middle of the rail just for a trial, and it worked well. However, I wanted to use something more fun to look at. Then, a windmill came to mind.

At first, I made a windmill with four blades. However, it was small, and I made a seven-blade windmill. It looked like a flower and was good. Here is the Seven-blade Windmill.

Seeing the marble run filled about 70 or 80% with various components is nice. However, there was one issue. Two elements had no connection to other parts, so I couldn't play the marble run. If I turn the handle, the balls drop from those components. Waiting until it's finished is no fun.

While wondering what to do, I found a good video, "How To Make A Marble Run Machine Spiral Coil." B-dama Friend provided the video. On the channel, there are many marble runs created with cardboard.
One of the videos shows how to make a coil using aluminium wires. It was a great idea and useful for my unfinished marble run.

I bought a 10m long aluminium wire immediately. I thought it might be too long but didn't want to run out of it later, so I bought a long one. After all, it wasn't long at all.

Making a coil was easy; I needed only a little patience. The coil was long enough to connect two components.
Finally, the marble run is available to play with. I appreciate "B-dama Friend Channel."

Since I connected the coil, I occasionally played with the marble run. Still, some balls dropped from somewhere, so I have to find out where those balls came from. Now, I need to make the upper left half to finish it. I'm almost there.

My Challenge to Make a Marble Run Machine - Pachinko Disk & Seven Arrows

Two mechanisms have been completed this week. I've never made such progress in my work before. In fact, my husband Juno helped me a lot.

One is named Seven Arrows, and the other is Pachinko Disk. I also made rails to connect these parts to each other.

Seven Arrows is, as you can imagine by the name, seven arrows that are like rails. When they receive the ball, they bow their heads down. Once the ball goes through, their heads tilt up and the ball rolls down to the next arrow. I like the rhythm of the light movement. However, sometimes two balls come at the same time and they drop one ball, so I have to correct it.

Pachiko Disk is named after the Japanese mechanical game, Pachinko. If you don't know Pachinko, please refer to the following Wikipedia page.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pachinko

 

 

There are many screws stuck on the disk. The length between those screw heads is slightly narrower than the diameter of the balls. Therefore, they prevent the balls from dropping.

There are four wooden parts on the disk. They are obstructed and let the balls bounce at various angles, or sometimes they hold balls in a slight hollow. Sometimes, the balls that were kept in a hollow were tilted and dropped underneath at once.

Actually, Juno designed the disk parts. I first designed it, but it didn't rotate often and wasn't fun to watch. So, he managed to think of a design that rotates more. I always try to think of the best design using 3D graphic software, but until I make it and experiment, it's hard to tell which design is the best. That is why it took so long for me.

These two parts were the main projects this time. However, I had to connect all of them to other rails. It took quite a time to make those rails and a dish. The work required lots of patience.

I'll show you the progress of my marble run. Here it is. As you can see, the top left half is still empty. Well, what shall I make the next?

My Challenge to Make a Marble Run Machine - Honey Dipper

I added a new component to my marble run machine. I want to say that I made it, but actually, my husband made it. I just attached it to the board.
My husband named it the Honey Dipper because it looks like the head of a honey dipper.  It's a cylinder with a spiral groove dug around it. The balls can roll inside the groove.

 

 

Making spiral grooves with a CNC router is quite challenging. I've never tried, but I gave up.
It was also challenging for my husband because he used a new part of the CNC for the first time. The result was excellent. It was done so well that it was hard to believe it was the very first time.
Here's the honey Dipper. It's hung from the bracket, so when the ball comes, it swings a little. 

Looking back on each function of the marble run machine I made, nothing looks similar. I intentionally did it because it would be fun to have various functions. Until today, I could think of design ideas, but it's getting more difficult to think of new functions. I don't want to use a similar design; if so, I have to think of something new. Then, the more I made, the more I ran out of options.

That said, this has happened before, but I've somehow managed it. I believe in my own ability to think of new ideas.
I'm sure I'll come up with something else.